As I’ve said so many times, President Trump is not going to make a bad deal with Iran.
And what we are learning from White House sources is an 80 percent to 85 percent chance of what they are calling the Islamabad memorandum of understanding. It could be completed in the next few days, maybe this weekend.
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All of Mr. Trump’s red lines are included in this MoU. And importantly, the entire deal is premised on Iran changing its behavior in verifiable ways that meet clear performance benchmarks.
The key points of this MoU begin with a plank that would prevent Iran from ever getting a nuclear weapon. That includes removal and destruction of already-enriched uranium.
It also includes a number of technical details where inspectors from the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Administration and American personnel will be involved in the process of destroying, removing, and verifying the end of Iran’s enriched material.
Additionally, Iran’s long-term nuclear ambitions will be ended. Technical inspection procedures will be included. Quote, "our approach here is to verify, verify, verify. And that the Iranians won’t get the benefit of the bargain unless they perform," end quote. That is according to administration sources.
Also Iran must stop funding terrorism in the region. A full regional peace deal is included. Plus, Iran will agree to opening the Strait of Hormuz, and the blockade will then be lifted if Iran follows through.
Importantly, according to sources, Iran will receive no money upon signing the MoU. Any sanctions relief must be tied to actual performance. If they change their behavior, and start acting like a normal country in accordance with this deal, then money will be forthcoming.
But after all, this is not the final deal, this is a memorandum of understanding. So hard bargaining on technical details and verification processes still lies ahead, even if this MoU is signed. That’s very, very important.
You might think of this as the beginning of the end of the war, but it’s not yet the end of the war.
Undoubtedly, though, Mr. Trump’s coercive diplomacy, or negotiations with bombs, is going to continue if Iran doesn’t measure up.
I have the feeling that Mr. Trump’s threat to destroy their infrastructure — bridges, power and water facilities — moved this MoU along pretty rapidly.
But performance incentives are the heart of this deal.
Behavior must change.